Click on each name to see their forecast
| Estimated | Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Nonresidential Total | – | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| Commercial Total | – | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| Office | – | 5.1 | 1.2 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | – | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Hotel | – | 3.9 | -0.7 |
| Industrial Total | – | 4.8 | 2.7 |
| Institutional Total | – | 4.8 | 2.9 |
| Health | – | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| Education | – | 5.5 | 4.1 |
| Religious | – | -2.6 | -1.2 |
| Public Safety | – | 6.8 | 4.9 |
| Amusement & Recreation | – | 4.4 | 0.6 |
|
Bob Murray (781) 430-2201 Spending Put-In-Place (billions of $) |
Estimated | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Nonresidential Total | 436.7 | 3.4 | -0.9 |
| Commercial Total | 195.9 | 2.0 | -4.7 |
| Office | 73.0 | 4.6 | -2.6 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 90.6 | -0.8 | -5.7 |
| Hotel | 32.3 | 3.9 | -6.8 |
| Industrial Total | 65.2 | 4.2 | 2.4 |
| Institutional Total | 175.6 | 4.8 | 1.9 |
| Health | 42.3 | 4.5 | 3.2 |
| Education | 94.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 |
| Religious | 3.0 | -1.0 | 1.9 |
| Public Safety | 9.3 | 3.8 | 2.7 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 26.6 | 3.2 | -2.1 |
|
Scott Hazelton (781) 301-9044 Spending Put-In-Place (billions of $) |
Estimated | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Nonresidential Total | 444.9 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Commercial Total | 174.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Office | 63.7 | 4.8 | 3.0 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 79.8 | -2.0 | -0.1 |
| Hotel | 30.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 |
| Industrial Total | 65.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Institutional Total | 194.9 | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| Health | 42.5 | 4.6 | 5.4 |
| Education | 94.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 |
| Religious | 3.0 | -8.3 | -7.5 |
| Public Safety | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Amusement & Recreation | 26.6 | 0.1 | -4.1 |
|
Loc Quach (610) 235-5125 Spending Put-In-Place (billions of $) |
Estimated | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Nonresidential Total | 458.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 |
| Commercial Total | 174.7 | 7.2 | 4.4 |
| Office | 63.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 80.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 |
| Hotel | 30.8 | 7.2 | 6.3 |
| Industrial Total | 64.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Institutional Total | 175.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| Health | 42.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| Education | 94.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Religious | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| Public Safety | 9.2 | 8.9 | 6.5 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 26.7 | 7.5 | 2.6 |
|
Randy Giggard (919) 785-9268 Spending Put-In-Place (billions of $) |
Estimated | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Nonresidential Total | 520.1 | 6.3 | 4.5 |
| Commercial Total | 274.0 | 4.6 | -0.7 |
| Office | 74.1 | 5.7 | -3.4 |
| Retail & Other Commercial* | 167.1 | 5.5 | 1.4 |
| Hotel | 32.7 | -2.7 | -5.1 |
| Industrial Total | 68.1 | 5.9 | -1.5 |
| Institutional Total | 178.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 |
| Health | 42.2 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| Education | 96.8 | 6.1 | 3.3 |
| Religious | 3.1 | -3.5 | -4.6 |
| Public Safety | 9.1 | 7.8 | 4.4 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 26.9 | 4.2 | -2.7 |
|
Alex Carrick (905) 752-5538 Spending Put-In-Place (billions of $) |
Estimated | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Nonresidential Total | 436.7 | 4.1 | 3.6 |
| Commercial Total | 195.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 |
| Office | 72.1 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 91.8 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Hotel | 31.6 | 2.5 | -2.8 |
| Industrial Total | 66.8 | 8.2 | 7.9 |
| Institutional Total | 174.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Health | 42.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Education | 93.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Religious | 2.9 | -3.4 | 0.0 |
| Public Safety | 9.4 | 7.4 | 5.9 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 26.4 | 4.2 | 3.3 |
|
Anirban Basu (703) 812-2062 Spending Put-In-Place (billions of $) |
Estimated | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Nonresidential Total | 436.8 | 3.5 | 0.1 |
| Commercial Total | 196.5 | 1.3 | -3.5 |
| Office | 72.5 | 3.6 | -2.5 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 92.0 | -1.0 | -4.2 |
| Hotel | 32.0 | 2.5 | -3.5 |
| Industrial Total | 65.7 | 6.2 | 3.7 |
| Institutional Total | 174.6 | 5.0 | 2.6 |
| Health | 42.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 |
| Education | 93.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 |
| Religious | 3.0 | 0.0 | -3.4 |
| Public Safety | 9.3 | 7.0 | 5.1 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 26.4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
|
Mark Vitner (704) 410-3277 Spending Put-In-Place (billions of $) |
Estimated | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Nonresidential Total | 437.0 | 4.8 | 3.3 |
| Commercial Total | 196.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 |
| Office | 73.1 | 6.8 | 4.2 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 90.6 | 3.9 | 3.2 |
| Hotel | 32.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 |
| Industrial Total | 65.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| Institutional Total | 175.6 | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| Health | 42.3 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Education | 94.5 | 4.4 | 3.4 |
| Religious | 3.0 | -5.0 | 1.6 |
| Public Safety | 9.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 26.6 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
|
Bernard Markstein (301)588-5190 Spending Put-In-Place (billions of $) |
Estimated | Forecast | $ | % Change | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonresidential Total | 437.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 |
| Commercial Total | 195.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Office | 73.1 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 90.5 | -1.2 | 1.5 |
| Hotel | 32.3 | 7.8 | 2.5 |
| Industrial Total | 65.3 | 5.4 | 4.6 |
| Institutional Total | 176.0 | 6.2 | 1.3 |
| Health | 42.3 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| Education | 94.7 | 7.2 | 6.5 |
| Religious | 3.0 | -1.9 | 1.0 |
| Public Safety | 9.3 | 5.6 | 4.9 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 26.6 | 5.7 | 3.6 |
Notes:
* FMI's Retail & Other Commercial category includes transportation and communication sectors.
The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.
There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.
Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.
All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.