economics
High
Energy Costs Inspire New Features in Homes
Residential market weakening, remodeling offers
opportunities
by Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA
AIA Chief Economist
Summary: AIA
Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA, reports that as the
residential market weakens, remodeling offers opportunities as homeowners
look for new ways to increase energy efficiency, accessibility, and
flexibility within their existing homes. In fact, the feature most
mentioned as most popular by respondents to the AIA Home Trends Survey
for the second quarter of 2006 was adding insulation to attics.
Even as the housing market continues
to ease in most markets nationally, residential architects report
that homeowners are looking for additional features, systems, and
products in their homes, and often different special function rooms.
Motivating the added features in homes typically is a desire for
greater energy efficiency, accessibility, and flexibility in use
of the space in the home.
New one-family homes increased in size by
almost 90 square feet in 2005 according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Residential architects report that one of the most popular uses
of this additional space was home offices. Over half of residential
architects surveyed felt that home offices are increasing in popularity
in the markets that they serve, while only about 1 percent feels
that they are becoming less popular. Almost half of all residential
architects feel that home offices are currently the most popular
special-function room.
Hobby/game rooms and au pair/in-law suites
also are seen as popular special-function rooms. Both of these
rooms were rated about the same in popularity as they were in the
AIA Home Design Trends survey of a year ago. Media/home theaters
and kid’s
wing/guest wing have diminished in popularity over the past year
according to residential architects.
Higher energy costs affect choices
Concerns over high energy costs are a theme in the home features,
systems, and products that are growing in popularity. A low-tech
solution to managing home energy costs—adding extra insulation
to the attic—was the home feature seen as increasing the
most in popularity in the second quarter. The two home features
seen as decreasing in popularity—larger hallways/increased
circulation space and upscale entryways—also happen to be
features that increase space in the home (and therefore energy
costs) without adding much in terms of useable space.
Increasing home accessibility—through the addition
of ramps and elevators, as well as including easy-to-use features
in the home—also
was seen as growing in popularity. Given the recent rise in the frequency
of natural disasters, designing homes that are more resistant to
hurricanes was seen as rising in popularity.
Introducing more consumer entertainment technology
in the home was a theme of in-home systems. The popularity of wireless
telecommunications and data systems, and central (distributed) audio
systems reflects the growing trend toward adding entertainment systems
to the home, as well as providing business systems to support home
offices. However, concerns over high energy costs are very evident
in the home systems that are becoming more common. Energy management
systems was the category that increased the most in popularity over
the past year, while automated lighting controls, which may help
to control energy use, also increased in usage over this period.
Popular products for the home also reflect homeowner
concern with managing energy costs, as well as continued interest
with minimizing maintenance. Over two-thirds of residential architects
feel that interest in energy-efficient products (e.g. triple-glazed
windows) is increasing, while none felt that interest was decreasing.
Tankless water heaters and water-saving products are examples of
other products that have positive energy-saving characteristics and
are growing in popularity.
Business trends confirm market slowdown
Business trends at residential architecture firms point to a clear
slowdown in the housing sector. Except for a brief uptick in the
first quarter of this year, the AIA billings index for residential
firms has been steadily declining since the survey began in early
2005. As of the second quarter, it was seven points below its level
of a year ago. The recent downturn in project inquiries has been
even more dramatic. The inquiries index in the second quarter fell
below the billings index and is 11 points off its level of a year
ago.
In
spite of the unmistakable easing in business conditions, firms are
reporting strong levels of backlogs. Currently, residential architecture
firms are reporting an average of 5.6 months of work under contract,
its highest level in the six quarters that the survey has been conducted.
One reason that backlogs may be growing as the market is clearly
easing is that a higher share of workloads may be larger or more
complex projects. Larger-scale projects tend to have a longer design
period and therefore typically generate longer backlogs.
There remains considerable regional variation in business
conditions across firms, with firms in the South and West reporting
reasonably healthy conditions, and firms in the Northeast and Midwest
seeing weaker levels of activity. However, constant across all regions
is the slowdown in business conditions over the past year. The firms
reporting the healthiest business conditions are also reporting the
greatest decline since the second quarter of 2005.
The weakening in the residential market continues
to hit some segments more than others. For example, remodeling projects—both
additions and alterations to existing homes as well as kitchen and
bath remodels—are
reported to be stronger now than they were a year ago. However, all
types of new construction are significantly weaker now than they
were a year ago.
A significant portion of residential architects are
reporting that projects for homes oriented toward first-time buyers/affordable
units are weakening. More are reporting that move-up home and custom/luxury
home projects are weakening than are reporting them improving.
Townhouse/condo projects are the only new construction category
where there is any evidence of growth, and even this varies considerably
across markets. Residential architects in the Northeast, for example,
report no increase in townhouse/condo projects.
|