The most recent numbers are "reasonably positive," with new housing starts and existing-home sales continuing to perform well, and consumer confidence up to a 16-month high.

Housing starts/existing-home sales:
• Housing starts for February topped 1.77 million, up 9 percent from February 2001. National Association of Home Builders
• Sales of existing homes in February fell slightly from January's record rate of more than 6 million (at an annualized rate) to a very respectable 5.88 million. Low mortgage rates continue to spur home sales in recent months. National Association of Realtors

Construction: Although nonresidential construction is still down from where it was a year ago, it is up 5% in February from January's number, another strong indicator that the recession indeed has ended. Office and retail construction is holding its own; even the institutional market is uniformly strong (this month's economics report in AIArchitect). F.W. Dodge Reports.

Consumer price index: Now that the recession is over, we need to watch consumer prices more closely as an indicator of whether inflation is taking hold. So far, with consumer prices up a mere 0.1% in January, then another 0.1% in February, there is no evidence of inflation. (This follows on the heels of three months of decline at the end of 2001.) U.S. Department of Labor

Employment: A fairly stable situation in March: Payrolls have grown by 58,000 jobs, a modest increase. Unemployment rose slightly to 5.7% nationwide, up from 5.5% in February. This slight increase should not be a major concern.

Consumer confidence: Good news from the University of Michigan: Preliminary figures reveal that in early March, the consumer sentiment index rose to 95.7 from 90.7 in February. This is the highest consumer confidence has been since the end of 2000. It continues an upward trend from the average of 2001, when sentiment hit a low of 81.8 in September after the terrorist attacks (the lowest since the 1991 recession).

—Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA, Chief Economist

Copyright 2002 The American Institute of Architects. All rights reserved.