March 5, 2002

Fourth Quarter GDP revision. Estimates for the Gross Domestic Product growth in the fourth quarter of 2001 were revised significantly upward, from 0.2% on the first call to 1.4%. The current revision includes numbers for imports and exports. A slight note of caution: the numbers may be showing a large increase due to incentive-driven sales in the auto industry. Further revisions of the GDP mostly likely will show that the economy was still in recession in the last part of 2001. (From the Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Construction spending: Dodge Reports for February indicate an 8% jump over January levels of nonresidential construction. School construction was the biggest winner. (From Dodge Reports)

Manufacturing: The ISM's monthly diffusion index , measured 54.7, up from 49.9 in January (50 is considered a growth state). This is the highest reading in the last 18 months, and the first time the index has been above 50—in a growth state—since August 2000. Manufacturing is picking up, which usually is a harbinger of a pick-up in general business-sector spending. (From the Institute for Supply Management).

—Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA, Chief Economist

Copyright 2002 The American Institute of Architects. All rights reserved.