Kiplinger
Connection
Doing Business • The Economy • Financial
Services
Doing Business: Save
more, diversify, upgrade workforce, enhance marketing.
The Economy: Corporate profit
moving back up, as is residential remodeling.
Financial Services: Credit
unions, though, are getting shakier and more costly.
Doing Business
In the brutal slump of the past two
years …
Few businesses have been left untouched. We asked firms around the
U.S. what the recession has taught them and how it’s changed
their operations.
Here’s what they say they’ve
learned:
Borrow less, save more. The biggest change businesses say they’ll
make: More caution about debt and more commitment to rainy-day funds.
Firms felt blindsided by the financial
crisis, caught in a maelstrom
not of their own making. A commercial truck dealership, for example,
was stung by a big interest rate hike, even though its credit rating
and balance sheet were rock solid: It was the bank backing the firm’s
corporate bonds that was wobbly.
Diversify. A Kentucky machinery business acquired new appreciation
for its broad customer base … 5,000 customers, none accounting
for more than 15% of its business. A Florida builder learned the
hard way when some of its few, large clients faltered.
And be flexible. A Virginia compressor company expects ongoing payoff
from newfound responsiveness to its customers’ needs and a
resulting shift in the business’s product mix.
Stay vigilant on costs. A surprising number of company owners and
managers confess to complacency in the years leading up to the slump.
Administrative expenses and personnel costs had escalated too far.
Clauses for automatic increases had crept into contracts. Small charges
for nonessential niceties were adding up to big bucks. Economies
forced on firms by the recession will add to the bottom line in better
times.
Make compensation more flexible … more closely tied to both
performance and workload. Some companies are slicing expenses by
shifting middle managers … a big chunk of payroll … off
salaries and on to day wages. An anesthesiology practice moved nurses
from salaries to hourly wages and doctors from salaries to a share
of profits. More bonuses, fewer salary hikes. And more folks working
on commission.
Upgrade your workforce. Recessions are not only a time for judicious
pruning, they’re also an opportunity to nab top-notch workers.
A Midwest accounting company let subpar workers go and expects to
benefit from more productive new hires for years.
When cuts are necessary, don’t dawdle. Most firms that bit
the bullet early credit doing so for their survival. Many that didn’t
act swiftly wish that they had, avoiding a deeper hole. But there
are exceptions. A Tennessee scrap metal operation that held on to
its workers was able to do the jobs when big new contracts turned
up.
Finally, focus on marketing. A Michigan construction firm that advertised
throughout the slump is gaining market share. Rivals that abandoned
ads are gone. And a metals company owner says succinctly: “Only
sales will get you out of a hole.”
The Economy
The outlook for corporate profits
is sunnier these days … and
not just for big blue-chip companies. After sliding nearly 12% last
year, the average for all companies … big and small, public
and private … rose a smidge in the first half of 2009 and
will do even better in the second half as the economy picks up.
Next year … an increase of about 10%. While welcome, that’ll
still put profits well below the 2006 peak of $1.6 trillion. In fourth
quarter 2008, they sank 23%.
The gains should ease worries about rising stock price-earnings ratios.
Is the recovery in home building
petering out? Although construction
starts of single family homes continue to increase, builders are
seeing less buyer traffic. That’s due to the rise in foreclosures
and unemployment and the scheduled expiration of the $8,000 federal
tax credit for first time buyers, though an extension is still likely.
The trend is still up, and 2010 should see an annual gain for the
first time since 2006. Despite the recent dip in builders’ confidence,
there are positive forces: Price declines leveling off in more metro
areas, historically low mortgage rates and the prospect of economic
growth generating at least some hiring in early 2010.
Meanwhile, the home remodeling business
is showing signs of revival. Existing-home sales have climbed steadily this year, sparking improvement
projects … owners looking to spruce up homes for sale and
buyers who want to make changes.
Remodelers are seeing more big projects … additions and kitchen
makeovers … with price tags of over $25,000. Window and door
replacements and upgrades of electrical and plumbing systems have
remained more or less steady.
But homeowners’ access to credit remains an obstacle to industry
growth, as banks and other lenders continue to treat all residential
lending with great caution.
By spring 2010, dollars spent per
quarter should start to climb again, though the total … around $107 billion … will still
be almost 9% below one year earlier.
No kick to the economy from holiday
hiring this year. Retail sales
aren’t likely to top the 2008 level, and neither will the number
of seasonal workers put on payrolls. Prospects are somewhat better
at shipping and distribution centers plus warehouses, with more customers
than ever shopping online, hunting for the best possible prices.
Not much joy from corporate celebrations,
either … another
low-key year.
Financial Services
Mounting woes at credit unions. Deposits will dwindle, delinquencies
are increasing, and the number of credit union failures is on the
rise. By the end of next year, 60 to 70 of the cooperative banking
institutions will fold as climbing mortgage foreclosures and unemployment
ripple through the economy. Costs are rising, too. This year, credit
unions are paying $15 per $1,000 of assets to replenish their deposit
insurance fund and pay off an emergency loan made to it by the Treasury
Dept. Credit unions hadn’t paid any extra fees for nearly 20
years.
It’s one more crimp on business growth. Many sole proprietors … doctors,
dentists, landscapers, and so on … rely on credit unions for
start-up money.
Think the SEC is getting too powerful?
Then you won’t like
a new proposal giving it even more independence and control over
how it allocates budget resources.
Look for a congressional battle over
a bill to let SEC keep the fees firms pay. Fees now go to the U.S. Treasury, and funds to run the
SEC must be appropriated by Congress each year. Sen. Charles Schumer
(D-NY) wants SEC to be self-funded. That would give the financial
watchdog about a 30% funding jump and let it decide which of its
tasks should get more money and which of them should get less.
Lawmakers are ready to give the SEC
more cash … maybe doubling
its budget from an expected $1.1 billion in fiscal 2010 to as much
as $2.25 billion by 2015.
Yielding control of the purse strings
to the regulators is a harder sell. Critics fear the agency will set filing fees too high and will
come down too hard on the 35,000 publicly owned firms and financial
institutions it now oversees. |