Jobs, jobs, jobs
The long-term outlook for jobs and the workforce will affect you ... whether you’re an employee or employer, looking for a new job or content where you are, hanging out a Help Wanted sign or laying off, just starting out or nearing retirement age.
Today’s sluggish job market won’t last.
Labor supply will tighten dramatically within just a few years as job numbers grow an average of 2.1 million a year for the next decade.
Workforce growth will lag. It’ll average 1.7 million a year, taking into account both immigration and native-borns getting first jobs.
Productivity gains are likely to ease in coming years, so ...
The economy won’t be able to regain the swift pace of the 1990s. Figure on productivity gains averaging from 2% to 2.3% from now till 2015 or so, then slipping below 2% ... about the same increases as in the 1970s.
What’s more, inflation and wage hikes will run a little higher than they have in the past decade, dampening rates of real growth.

Adding to the challenge of finding and keeping good workers:
A huge wave of retirements as baby boomers begin turning age 65.
And less room for labor force participation growth as the share of women working outside the home continues to slip from its 1997 high. And welfare reforms, now fully implemented, won’t yield much more fruit.

Much of future job growth will come in a few metro areas ... counties with the biggest population hikes over the next 10–25 years. An exception: Older cities, which will lose population but get jobs. Land downtown will be more valuable for commercial use, displacing homes. Similarly, population will grow fastest in outer suburbs, whereas jobs will rise fastest in inner suburbs. Radial roads, beltways, and airports outside cities will add to sprawl and swell the ranks of commuters.

The South and Southwest will dominate the biggest-gainer list, according to NPA Data Services Inc., an Arlington, Va., research firm: California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Virginia, Arizona, and Colorado.
Metro areas with million-job growth by 2030: Atlanta, Houston, Phoenix-Mesa, Dallas, Washington, D.C., L.A.-Long Beach, San Diego, Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Chicago, Orange County, Calif., Denver, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Orlando, and Boston. Other big gainers include Minneapolis-St. Paul, Las Vegas, Sacramento, and Austin-San Marcos.

More job gainers
Areas with the fastest job growth now to 2030 will be in Florida: Punta Gorda, Orlando, and Naples. Jobs there are likely to grow nearly 3% per year on average, although from a relatively small base.
Also: Myrtle Beach, S.C. Provo-Orem, Utah. Las Vegas, Nevada. In Arizona ... Phoenix-Mesa. In Texas ... Laredo, Austin-San Marcos, and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission. In Colorado ... Fort Collins-Loveland. And in Florida ... Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie and Sarasota-Bradenton. All of the 30 fastest growers are states in the South and West.

States with above-average population growth now to 2030 straddle the Rocky Mountains, running from Idaho to the Mexican border. Others outpacing the average ... Alaska, California, Texas, and Florida.
States below the average will be concentrated in the Northeast and North Central regions. Only a few will be outside those areas. The slowest gains will come in New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Illinois, Ohio, Massachusetts, Iowa, West Virginia, and Rhode Island. But no state will lose population between now and 2030.

Moving jobs abroad
Outsourcing will become an even hotter political issue ...
Especially when more professional jobs are done overseas. Much of the outsourced work will be routine ... reading X-rays, writing computer codes, doing product design, preparing tax returns.
Most economists contend that the U.S. is a net winner, gaining as much as $1.14 in benefits per $1 invested in outsourcing.
Outsourcing frees capital for investment by cutting costs for U.S. companies. That allows for business expansion and new jobs. Consumers pay less for goods and services, increasing buying power. And jobs abroad provide opportunities for U.S. firms to sell exports.
But more outsourcing will hurt individual workers. Hardest hit: People who are in low-profit manufacturing and low-skill service jobs that can be done anywhere. Many displaced workers will find new jobs in growing industries that offer greater opportunity and higher pay ... part of roughly 2 million U.S. job changes taking place every month.

© 2004 The Kiplinger Washington Editors, Inc.