CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, DECEMBER 2023

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total – 4.0 1.2
Commercial Total – -0.7 0.2
Office – -1.7 -0.7
Retail & Other Commercial – -1.2 -0.4
Hotel – 7.4 5.9
Industrial Total – 8.9 -0.8
Institutional Total – 5.1 3.1
Health – 3.6 3.5
Education – 5.8 3.9
Religious – 1.1 1.0
Public Safety – 9.8 3.6
Amusement & Recreation – 3.7 3.1

Dodge Construction Network

Richard Branch
(781) 430-8884
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 645.3 10.6 3.7
Commercial Total 244.4 -2.6 0.5
Office 103.1 0.8 -0.7
Retail & Other Commercial 118.5 -7.4 -2.4
Hotel 22.8 7.1 18.5
Industrial Total 180.6 31.0 4.8
Institutional Total 220.3 8.6 5.9
Health 58.8 4.4 5.4
Education 113.6 10.4 5.4
Religious 3.4 8.4 14.4
Public Safety 13.3 22.4 5.4
Amusement & Recreation 31.2 4.4 8.4

S&P Global Market, Intelligence

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 686.1 3.0 -4.2
Commercial Total 216.6 -4.6 -3.4
Office 82.5 -1.3 2.4
Retail & Other Commercial 110.3 -11.6 -12.7
Hotel 23.8 16.9 12.4
Industrial Total 196.5 9.0 -15.1
Institutional Total 248.7 4.7 3.1
Health 62.0 4.8 3.4
Education 111.5 6.0 4.6
Religious 3.0 -8.6 -3.4
Public Safety N/A N/A N/A
Amusement & Recreation 31.1 0.9 2.0

Moody’s Analytics

Steven Shields
(610) 235-5142
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 671.8 4.3 -2.6
Commercial Total 252.8 1.0 -1.7
Office 78.5 7.0 2.5
Retail & Other Commercial 130.5 -1.4 -2.0
Hotel 23.7 7.4 0.1
Industrial Total 194.3 8.6 -5.4
Institutional Total 224.8 4.2 -1.0
Health 61.9 -0.6 -1.7
Education 114.7 6.1 -0.7
Religious 3.3 2.1 -5.3
Public Safety 12.7 8.8 -0.3
Amusement & Recreation 32.1 5.2 -0.8

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 785.5 8.1 -0.1
Commercial Total 347.7 1.6 -1.5
Office 100.6 -1.7 -4.6
Retail & Other Commercial* 222.7 1.9 0.1
Hotel 24.3 12.0 -3.5
Industrial Total 203.7 18.1 -2.3
Institutional Total 234.1 9.1 3.9
Health 62.8 8.0 4.3
Education 120.3 9.9 4.7
Religious 3.5 5.4 -2.3
Public Safety 13.9 13.2 5.6
Amusement & Recreation 33.6 7.3 0.0

ConstructConnect

Alex Carrick
(905) 752-5538
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 664.4 -1.0 0.6
Commercial Total 252.5 0.0 1.7
Office 97.7 -6.1 -2.0
Retail & Other Commercial 131.1 3.4 3.2
Hotel 23.7 6.8 7.1
Industrial Total 188.7 -7.1 -2.9
Institutional Total 223.2 3.0 2.1
Health 61.9 2.1 2.7
Education 113.2 2.9 1.5
Religious 3.2 -3.1 0.0
Public Safety 12.8 10.9 2.8
Amusement & Recreation 32.1 2.2 2.7

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 673.6 8.1 7.4
Commercial Total 253.2 5.7 5.6
Office 98.7 6.8 7.3
Retail & Other Commercial 130.8 4.1 4.0
Hotel 23.7 10.0 7.5
Industrial Total 196.1 14.7 12.5
Institutional Total 224.3 5.1 4.4
Health 62.1 7.7 4.9
Education 114.0 3.6 4.3
Religious 3.3 2.3 0.5
Public Safety 12.9 4.8 2.5
Amusement & Recreation 32.0 5.8 5.1

Wells Fargo Securities

Charles Dougherty
(704) 410-6542
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 645.4 -0.9 1.9
Commercial Total 243.8 -5.3 0.3
Office 95.2 -6.6 -1.5
Retail & Other Commercial 126.1 -5.0 1.3
Hotel 22.5 -1.5 2.4
Industrial Total 185.6 6.5 3.5
Institutional Total 216.1 -2.1 -2.1
Health 60.2 -1.9 1.4
Education 111.2 -2.5 2.1
Religious 3.2 -3.2 1.3
Public Safety 12.4 3.0 2.5
Amusement & Recreation 29.1 -4.2 2.8

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(484) 924-9739
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 672.5 5.9 3.5
Commercial Total 253.2 2.4 1.7
Office 98.5 2.6 1.1
Retail & Other Commercial 131.1 1.6 1.6
Hotel 23.6 5.6 4.8
Industrial Total 193.9 7.2 2.5
Institutional Total 225.4 8.6 6.4
Health 62.1 5.0 5.1
Education 114.9 11.0 8.3
Religious 3.3 4.0 0.0
Public Safety 13.0 11.4 4.0
Amusement & Recreation 32.1 5.9 3.3

Piedmont Crescent Capital

Mark Vitner
(704) 458-4000
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 675.7 -2.4 0.1
Commercial Total 253.2 -4.6 -1.6
Office 98.7 -16.5 -10.7
Retail & Other Commercial 131.2 3.2 3.0
Hotel 23.3 1.9 3.8
Industrial Total 196.1 -7.7 -4.7
Institutional Total 226.5 4.6 5.5
Health 62.0 3.3 6.3
Education 116.2 5.1 5.3
Religious 3.3 2.8 3.5
Public Safety 12.9 4.0 6.0
Amusement & Recreation 32.1 5.5 4.4

Notes:

* FMI's "Retail & Other Commercial" category includes commercial/retail, transportation, and communication.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There are no standard definitions of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g., public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.