CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, JULY 2023

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total – 19.7 2.0
Commercial Total – 11.2 -1.7
Office – 8.0 -1.4
Retail & Other Commercial – 10.8 -2.8
Hotel – 24.0 7.0
Industrial Total – 55.1 5.4
Institutional Total – 10.0 3.6
Health – 10.4 3.0
Education – 10.5 4.3
Religious – 8.4 1.0
Public Safety – 3.9 5.3
Amusement & Recreation – 10.2 1.9

Dodge Construction Network

Richard Branch
(781) 430-8884
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 522.9 30.0 3.0
Commercial Total 222.0 11.0 -4.0
Office 87.8 15.0 -3.0
Retail & Other Commercial 115.6 6.0 -6.0
Hotel 18.6 29.0 7.0
Industrial Total 107.9 89.0 6.0
Institutional Total 193.1 18.0 8.0
Health 52.7 19.0 11.0
Education 99.2 18.0 7.0
Religious 2.9 20.0 17.0
Public Safety 11.2 15.0 11.0
Amusement & Recreation 27.1 13.0 1.0

S&P Global, Market Intelligence

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 542.4 17.3 2.8
Commercial Total 193.6 13.8 -4.6
Office 75.3 11.7 -2.3
Retail & Other Commercial 100.2 11.8 -10.7
Hotel 18.1 33.4 15.2
Industrial Total 106.3 41.9 9.0
Institutional Total 218.3 10.1 5.4
Health 52.6 11.3 6.0
Education 99.4 11.0 6.5
Religious 2.9 1.7 -7.4
Public Safety N/A N/A N/A
Amusement & Recreation 27.1 8.3 2.8

Moody’s Analytics

Steven Shields
(610) 235-5142
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 520.3 23.0 2.2
Commercial Total 220.9 14.7 1.6
Office 74.9 0.6 11.1
Retail & Other Commercial 114.8 13.8 0.3
Hotel 18.5 39.7 14.2
Industrial Total 106.3 62.9 3.6
Institutional Total 193.0 10.7 1.8
Health 52.6 9.3 -1.1
Education 99.4 11.2 1.9
Religious 2.9 11.5 -2.0
Public Safety 11.0 4.0 4.4
Amusement & Recreation 27.1 14.1 6.3

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 604.1 13.6 2.4
Commercial Total 303.1 9.4 -1.8
Office 87.8 7.5 -5.5
Retail & Other Commercial* 196.7 9.2 -0.5
Hotel 18.6 20.6 1.1
Industrial Total 107.9 35.7 8.0
Institutional Total 193.1 7.8 5.2
Health 52.7 8.5 4.9
Education 99.2 7.7 6.0
Religious 2.9 3.6 0.0
Public Safety 11.2 3.5 8.1
Amusement & Recreation 27.1 9.0 2.7

ConstructConnect

Alex Carrick
(905) 752-5538
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 523.0 13.5 1.9
Commercial Total 222.0 6.4 3.2
Office 87.8 0.1 0.9
Retail & Other Commercial 115.6 10.3 3.3
Hotel 18.6 12.4 12.4
Industrial Total 107.9 38.0 -1.0
Institutional Total 193.1 7.8 2.5
Health 52.7 8.5 1.9
Education 99.2 8.3 2.4
Religious 2.9 3.4 0.0
Public Safety 11.2 1.8 5.3
Amusement & Recreation 27.1 7.7 3.1

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 522.9 22.3 7.7
Commercial Total 222.0 13.0 0.6
Office 87.8 10.6 -2.0
Retail & Other Commercial 115.6 13.1 1.8
Hotel 18.6 23.6 4.7
Industrial Total 107.9 61.7 19.3
Institutional Total 193.1 11.1 6.4
Health 52.7 8.9 4.8
Education 99.2 12.9 8.1
Religious 2.9 9.0 3.2
Public Safety 11.2 5.9 5.6
Amusement & Recreation 27.1 11.2 3.9

Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Charles Dougherty
(704) 410-6542
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 522.9 13.9 -1.0
Commercial Total 222.0 8.4 -4.4
Office 87.8 6.5 -4.5
Retail & Other Commercial 115.6 9.8 -4.8
Hotel 18.6 8.6 -1.2
Industrial Total 107.9 40.0 5.5
Institutional Total 193.1 5.8 -2.1
Health 52.7 6.8 -1.4
Education 99.2 5.1 -2.1
Religious 2.9 6.1 -3.2
Public Safety 11.2 4.1 1.5
Amusement & Recreation 27.1 6.8 -3.7

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(484)924-9739
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 522.9 23.0 3.6
Commercial Total 222.0 11.6 0.6
Office 87.8 9.1 -0.7
Retail & Other Commercial 115.6 10.9 0.8
Hotel 18.6 27.4 5.1
Industrial Total 107.9 67.7 6.0
Institutional Total 193.1 11.0 5.0
Health 52.7 11.3 4.9
Education 99.2 12.0 5.7
Religious 2.9 8.4 -0.2
Public Safety 11.2 4.3 4.9
Amusement & Recreation 27.1 10.1 3.0

Piedmont Crescent Capital

Mark Vitner
(704)458-4000
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 523.5 20.4 -4.7
Commercial Total 221.5 12.3 -6.8
Office 87.8 10.8 -6.4
Retail & Other Commercial 115.6 12.1 -8.9
Hotel 18.2 21.3 4.3
Industrial Total 107.9 58.8 -7.7
Institutional Total 194.0 8.2 0.3
Health 52.7 10.2 -3.8
Education 99.2 8.2 3.0
Religious 2.9 11.7 2.0
Public Safety 12.2 -7.7 2.0
Amusement & Recreation 27.1 11.2 -2.2

Notes:

* FMI's "Retail & Other Commercial" category includes commercial/retail, transportation, and communication.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.