CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, DECEMBER 2022

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total – 5.8 0.8
Commercial Total – 2.6 -1.4
Office – -0.5 -0.7
Retail & Other Commercial – 3.0 -2.9
Hotel – 9.5 5.3
Industrial Total – 15.1 0.4
Institutional Total – 4.1 3.8
Health – 5.5 3.2
Education – 3.0 4.6
Religious – -0.4 0.2
Public Safety – 4.9 4.6
Amusement & Recreation – 5.3 2.4

Dodge Construction Network

Richard Branch
(781) 430-8884
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 560.4 13.7 -2.0
Commercial Total 226.6 6.7 -1.6
Office 89.2 6.7 4.2
Retail & Other Commercial 112.2 3.7 -8.6
Hotel 25.2 20.5 7.5
Industrial Total 134.4 32.3 -16.3
Institutional Total 199.4 9.0 9.4
Health 52.6 21.2 12.1
Education 101.5 3.2 10.3
Religious 2.8 7.7 8.7
Public Safety 12.4 6.0 6.4
Amusement & Recreation 30.2 8.7 2.4

S&P Global Market, Intelligence

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 529.1 8.2 1.0
Commercial Total 188.2 4.5 -4.4
Office 73.6 0.3 -0.3
Retail & Other Commercial 97.4 5.8 -10.8
Hotel 17.2 15.1 13.6
Industrial Total 101.6 17.4 -1.9
Institutional Total 215.1 7.1 6.5
Health 51.8 4.3 5.0
Education 98.1 8.9 8.0
Religious 2.9 -4.2 -4.0
Public Safety N/A N/A N/A
Amusement & Recreation 26.3 7.2 5.9

Moody’s Analytics

Steven Shields
(610) 235-5142
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 507.5 7.7 2.3
Commercial Total 215.6 9.1 3.5
Office 74.9 -1.3 7.0
Retail & Other Commercial 111.8 8.4 3.6
Hotel 17.7 25.8 15.7
Industrial Total 101.4 9.1 -0.2
Institutional Total 190.5 5.4 2.4
Health 51.8 3.0 -0.3
Education 97.8 4.3 2.7
Religious 2.9 4.1 -2.5
Public Safety 11.1 10.0 4.6
Amusement & Recreation 26.8 12.2 5.3

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 589.9 7.9 1.1
Commercial Total 298.7 5.7 -3.8
Office 87.0 0.3 -9.2
Retail & Other Commercial* 193.0 7.6 -1.7
Hotel 18.8 12.1 -3.0
Industrial Total 98.8 20.4 8.8
Institutional Total 192.4 4.9 4.3
Health 51.6 6.9 3.8
Education 98.5 3.0 5.6
Religious 2.8 -2.3 -1.4
Public Safety 11.9 6.8 8.4
Amusement & Recreation 27.6 8.1 -0.4

ConstructConnect

Alex Carrick
(905) 752-5538
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 506.5 5.6 3.7
Commercial Total 214.2 2.1 5.0
Office 85.6 -0.5 3.6
Retail & Other Commercial 111.0 2.9 4.7
Hotel 17.6 9.7 12.4
Industrial Total 103.8 22.4 0.6
Institutional Total 188.5 0.4 4.2
Health 51.6 0.6 3.1
Education 96.8 0.0 4.8
Religious 2.9 0.0 6.9
Public Safety 11.1 0.9 3.6
Amusement & Recreation 26.1 1.1 4.2

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 507.1 1.9 1.0
Commercial Total 215.5 -2.6 -3.8
Office 86.3 -3.4 -5.1
Retail & Other Commercial 111.4 -2.9 -4.2
Hotel 17.8 2.9 4.3
Industrial Total 101.4 9.2 6.0
Institutional Total 190.2 3.0 3.2
Health 51.7 3.7 2.6
Education 97.5 2.8 3.4
Religious 2.9 -4.1 -4.3
Public Safety 11.4 3.0 4.9
Amusement & Recreation 26.7 3.3 3.9

Wells Fargo Securities

Charles Dougherty
(704) 410-6542
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 497.5 2.8 -1.2
Commercial Total 206.7 0.2 -4.1
Office 80.9 -2.5 -4.5
Retail & Other Commercial 107.5 2.8 -3.9
Hotel 18.4 -3.2 -3.7
Industrial Total 100.9 10.5 4.8
Institutional Total 189.9 1.6 -1.7
Health 52.8 3.5 -2.1
Education 96.8 1.5 -1.3
Religious 3.0 -1.5 -1.5
Public Safety 10.6 2.0 2.5
Amusement & Recreation 26.6 -1.5 -3.9

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(301) 588-5190
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 507.7 4.5 3.3
Commercial Total 215.0 3.1 1.4
Office 85.8 1.3 1.7
Retail & Other Commercial 111.5 4.0 1.0
Hotel 17.7 6.2 1.9
Industrial Total 102.1 9.8 4.9
Institutional Total 190.7 3.4 4.5
Health 51.9 4.5 3.7
Education 97.8 2.0 5.7
Religious 2.9 -2.9 0.2
Public Safety 11.3 7.8 4.1
Amusement & Recreation 26.9 5.2 2.8

Piedmont Crescent Capital

Mark Vitner
(704) 458-4000
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2022 2023 2024
Nonresidential Total 508.5 -0.5 -2.0
Commercial Total 217.1 -5.2 -4.7
Office 85.9 -5.7 -3.5
Retail & Other Commercial 113.4 -5.2 -6.2
Hotel 17.8 -3.0 -1.0
Industrial Total 100.5 5.0 -3.5
Institutional Total 190.9 1.9 1.6
Health 52.1 1.9 0.9
Education 98.0 1.5 1.8
Religious 3.0 -0.3 -0.3
Public Safety 11.3 2.7 2.6
Amusement & Recreation 26.5 3.0 1.8

Notes:

* FMI's "Retail & Other Commercial" category includes commercial/retail, transportation, and communication.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There are no standard definitions of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g., public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.