CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, JULY 2022

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total – 9.1 6.0
Commercial Total – 6.7 4.5
Office – 2.6 3.5
Retail & Other Commercial – 11.5 3.2
Hotel – -5.4 13.8
Industrial Total – 31.0 9.9
Institutional Total – 2.6 5.5
Health – 5.0 5.7
Education – 2.0 5.2
Religious – -8.7 -1.1
Public Safety – -10.0 5.5
Amusement & Recreation – 7.5 5.8

Dodge Construction Network

Richard Branch
(781) 430-8884
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 458.8 18.2 10.6
Commercial Total 192.6 13.5 9.5
Office 82.0 1.6 8.7
Retail & Other Commercial 90.8 20.9 8.7
Hotel 19.8 28.7 15.7
Industrial Total 78.1 55.8 8.0
Institutional Total 188.1 7.4 13.3
Health 49.0 5.8 18.0
Education 98.8 5.5 12.4
Religious 3.1 -11.5 5.5
Public Safety 12.0 2.8 10.7
Amusement & Recreation 25.2 22.0 10.0

S&P Global, Market Intelligence

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 480.1 9.9 5.9
Commercial Total 168.6 5.8 2.0
Office 70.6 4.9 2.9
Retail & Other Commercial 78.9 10.7 -2.8
Hotel 19.2 -11.4 22.4
Industrial Total 77.7 38.1 12.0
Institutional Total 212.1 3.3 5.5
Health 49.0 3.9 2.0
Education 98.8 3.3 5.3
Religious 3.1 -6.2 -12.9
Public Safety N/A N/A N/A
Amusement & Recreation 25.2 5.3 5.6

Moody’s Analytics

Steven Shields
(610) 235-5142
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 458.3 10.5 7.1
Commercial Total 192.6 8.4 8.4
Office 75.4 -6.4 5.2
Retail & Other Commercial 90.8 15.5 6.5
Hotel 19.8 -11.8 18.3
Industrial Total 77.7 32.4 5.2
Institutional Total 188.0 3.7 6.7
Health 49.0 4.6 2.3
Education 98.8 4.2 7.8
Religious 3.1 -6.7 3.9
Public Safety 11.9 -10.1 10.1
Amusement & Recreation 25.2 7.4 10.0

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 537.0 3.1 4.7
Commercial Total 271.0 2.0 3.8
Office 82.1 1.5 2.1
Retail & Other Commercial* 169.3 3.8 4.2
Hotel 19.7 -11.1 8.4
Industrial Total 78.5 14.9 10.1
Institutional Total 187.5 -0.3 3.4
Health 49.1 2.8 4.5
Education 98.2 -0.6 2.8
Religious 3.0 -8.9 -4.4
Public Safety 11.9 -11.7 -0.1
Amusement & Recreation 25.2 1.4 5.4

ConstructConnect

Alex Carrick
(905) 752-5538
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 458.9 11.4 12.9
Commercial Total 193.0 7.1 10.9
Office 82.1 7.1 7.5
Retail & Other Commercial 91.2 10.7 9.1
Hotel 19.7 -9.6 38.2
Industrial Total 78.5 36.7 28.1
Institutional Total 187.4 5.1 6.6
Health 49.1 9.2 7.8
Education 98.2 3.1 4.7
Religious 3.0 -10.0 3.7
Public Safety 11.9 -3.4 16.5
Amusement & Recreation 25.2 11.1 7.5

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 458.9 7.2 2.1
Commercial Total 192.9 5.1 -3.0
Office 82.1 3.6 -2.9
Retail & Other Commercial 91.2 8.3 -4.0
Hotel 19.7 -3.9 2.1
Industrial Total 78.5 24.5 9.0
Institutional Total 187.5 2.2 4.0
Health 49.1 4.1 3.5
Education 98.2 2.2 5.0
Religious 3.0 -4.8 -4.1
Public Safety 11.9 -13.8 1.0
Amusement & Recreation 25.2 5.3 3.3

Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Mark Vitner
(704) 410-3277
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 458.9 5.1 2.9
Commercial Total 192.9 5.2 2.9
Office 82.1 4.5 2.8
Retail & Other Commercial 91.2 9.4 3.1
Hotel 19.7 -11.2 2.4
Industrial Total 78.5 21.2 4.9
Institutional Total 187.5 -1.6 1.9
Health 49.1 5.1 2.5
Education 98.2 -2.5 1.4
Religious 3.0 -9.8 1.8
Public Safety 11.9 -31.2 2.1
Amusement & Recreation 25.2 3.5 2.4

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(301)588-5190
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 458.9 7.4 2.0
Commercial Total 192.9 6.3 1.2
Office 82.1 4.0 1.6
Retail & Other Commercial 91.2 12.5 0.6
Hotel 19.7 -12.5 3.1
Industrial Total 78.5 24.6 2.3
Institutional Total 187.5 1.3 2.8
Health 49.1 4.3 4.6
Education 98.2 1.2 2.2
Religious 3.0 -12.1 -2.4
Public Safety 11.9 -12.6 3.5
Amusement & Recreation 25.2 4.3 2.0

Notes:

* FMI's "Retail & Other Commercial" category includes commercial/retail, transportation, and communication.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.