CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, DECEMBER 2021

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total – 5.4 6.1
Commercial Total – 4.7 5.3
Office – 0.8 3.6
Retail & Other Commercial – 7.5 4.9
Hotel – -0.4 13.5
Industrial Total – 9.4 8.4
Institutional Total – 4.4 6.0
Health – 6.2 6.0
Education – 3.5 6.1
Religious – -1.1 1.2
Public Safety – -1.3 5.6
Amusement & Recreation – 7.7 6.0

Dodge Construction Network

Richard Branch
(781) 430-8884
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 433.3 9.9 6.8
Commercial Total 180.9 16.5 4.4
Office 74.4 11.5 5.2
Retail & Other Commercial 90.8 20.4 2.7
Hotel 15.6 17.7 11.5
Industrial Total 62.1 -3.5 8.8
Institutional Total 190.2 7.9 8.6
Health 47.3 10.4 12.2
Education 100.8 6.5 9.6
Religious 2.8 -0.8 1.7
Public Safety 16.1 3.5 2.7
Amusement & Recreation 23.2 13.2 2.1

IHS Markit

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 471.0 2.0 4.9
Commercial Total 165.6 -1.2 2.8
Office 70.0 0.5 2.6
Retail & Other Commercial 76.3 0.2 -1.4
Hotel 19.3 -13.1 22.4
Industrial Total 73.2 6.5 8.3
Institutional Total 210.6 2.9 4.7
Health 48.5 5.5 4.2
Education 98.2 2.2 4.5
Religious 3.0 -5.7 -2.5
Public Safety N/A N/A N/A
Amusement & Recreation 24.9 5.7 5.2

Moody’s Analytics

Brent Campbell
(610) 235-5215
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 456.7 14.7 11.3
Commercial Total 192.5 14.0 13.9
Office 75.4 -6.2 9.5
Retail & Other Commercial 90.1 18.5 10.9
Hotel 20.2 14.4 39.7
Industrial Total 76.1 29.4 9.2
Institutional Total 188.1 9.6 9.6
Health 49.1 12.6 5.1
Education 98.5 6.6 8.7
Religious 3.1 14.0 8.7
Public Safety 12.2 -3.5 9.2
Amusement & Recreation 25.3 21.0 21.3

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 543.7 3.2 6.1
Commercial Total 275.4 1.8 5.4
Office 84.2 0.2 4.6
Retail & Other Commercial* 171.3 3.8 5.6
Hotel 19.8 -9.6 6.7
Industrial Total 77.5 12.2 9.1
Institutional Total 190.8 1.9 5.9
Health 50.0 5.8 8.5
Education 99.9 1.2 4.8
Religious 3.0 -8.1 1.8
Public Safety 12.1 -5.1 4.0
Amusement & Recreation 25.7 -0.5 6.2

ConstructConnect

Alex Carrick
(905) 752-5538
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 445.6 1.6 8.1
Commercial Total 188.0 -1.5 8.0
Office 80.7 -5.9 2.0
Retail & Other Commercial 87.1 4.1 11.2
Hotel 20.2 -7.9 17.2
Industrial Total 72.4 8.7 14.9
Institutional Total 185.2 1.9 5.4
Health 48.5 1.0 5.1
Education 96.7 0.2 4.9
Religious 3.0 -3.3 0.0
Public Safety 12.0 4.2 12.8
Amusement & Recreation 25.0 9.6 5.1

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 456.9 5.2 3.9
Commercial Total 192.7 3.8 1.6
Office 83.0 2.1 -1.5
Retail & Other Commercial 89.6 6.0 3.8
Hotel 20.1 1.0 4.3
Industrial Total 75.8 8.5 5.7
Institutional Total 188.4 5.4 5.4
Health 48.9 4.8 3.4
Education 98.6 6.2 7.1
Religious 3.0 -4.0 -3.5
Public Safety 12.3 -1.2 4.9
Amusement & Recreation 25.5 7.7 3.6

Wells Fargo Securities

Mark Vitner
(704) 410-3277
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2021 2023
Nonresidential Total 435.7 2.8 3.9
Commercial Total 180.9 2.5 3.3
Office 75.3 1.9 3.0
Retail & Other Commercial 85.2 3.1 3.6
Hotel 20.4 2.3 3.1
Industrial Total 73.9 3.9 5.8
Institutional Total 180.8 2.7 3.6
Health 48.1 3.5 4.8
Education 95.2 2.9 3.4
Religious 2.8 2.4 3.1
Public Safety 10.5 -1.9 2.0
Amusement & Recreation 24.2 2.4 2.7

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(301) 588-5190
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2021 2022 2023
Nonresidential Total 455.5 3.5 4.1
Commercial Total 191.7 1.9 2.8
Office 81.9 2.0 3.0
Retail & Other Commercial 89.7 4.1 2.5
Hotel 20.1 -8.3 3.1
Industrial Total 75.8 9.7 5.7
Institutional Total 188.0 2.7 4.7
Health 48.9 5.9 4.8
Education 98.7 2.5 5.6
Religious 3.0 -3.3 0.0
Public Safety 12.3 -5.2 3.6
Amusement & Recreation 25.1 2.1 1.8

Notes:

* FMI's "Retail & Other Commercial" category includes commercial/retail, transportation, and communication.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There are no standard definitions of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g., public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.