CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, JULY 2021

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total – -3.9 4.6
Commercial Total – -5.4 5.4
Office – -5.6 -0.1
Retail & Other Commercial – -1.3 5.8
Hotel – -19.9 18.9
Industrial Total – -4.4 4.8
Institutional Total – -2.3 3.6
Health – 1.4 4.4
Education – -2.1 3.6
Religious – -0.9 -0.9
Public Safety – -2.1 0.1
Amusement & Recreation – -9.9 6.0

Dodge Data & Analytics

Richard Branch
(781) 430-8884
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 462.6 -9.3 4.7
Commercial Total 193.5 -9.0 11.1
Office 81.2 -8.7 11.7
Retail & Other Commercial 83.7 2.5 9.7
Hotel 28.6 -43.4 15.6
Industrial Total 71.8 -32.4 -4.1
Institutional Total 197.3 -1.3 1.2
Health 47.6 3.0 3.5
Education 104.5 -0.8 0.2
Religious 3.2 -1.1 -4.9
Public Safety 15.1 18.7 3.1
Amusement & Recreation 26.9 -22.2 0.2

IHS Economics

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 484.9 -4.9 0.7
Commercial Total 169.9 -8.5 -2.1
Office 70.1 -7.2 -2.6
Retail & Other Commercial 72.4 -7.3 -4.0
Hotel 27.5 -14.8 4.5
Industrial Total 71.7 -1.8 8.1
Institutional Total 220.8 -3.7 0.0
Health 47.4 -1.8 3.9
Education 104.8 -4.4 1.9
Religious 3.2 -1.7 -2.6
Public Safety N/A N/A N/A
Amusement & Recreation 26.9 -7.4 0.5

Moody’s Analytics

Steven Shields
(610) 235-5142
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 462.2 -1.2 18.8
Commercial Total 193.3 -1.2 31.9
Office 73.9 -5.1 -1.6
Retail & Other Commercial 83.6 4.0 27.8
Hotel 28.5 -16.5 132.2
Industrial Total 71.7 1.2 12.4
Institutional Total 197.2 -2.1 8.2
Health 47.4 -2.1 -0.5
Education 104.8 -0.9 6.8
Religious 3.2 11.1 8.6
Public Safety 14.9 -6.4 2.3
Amusement & Recreation 26.9 -6.2 33.4

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 541.9 -3.3 1.5
Commercial Total 272.8 -4.1 -0.9
Office 81.2 -5.2 -1.5
Retail & Other Commercial* 163.0 -1.1 0.4
Hotel 28.6 -17.7 -7.8
Industrial Total 71.8 0.8 8.2
Institutional Total 197.3 -3.9 2.2
Health 47.6 1.6 5.5
Education 104.5 -2.3 4.1
Religious 3.2 -10.9 -6.4
Public Safety 15.1 -13.7 -12.0
Amusement & Recreation 26.9 -13.2 -4.4

ConstructConnect

Alex Carrick
(905) 752-5538
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 462.6 -0.4 2.9
Commercial Total 193.5 -3.7 -0.8
Office 81.2 -7.4 -10.6
Retail & Other Commercial 83.7 3.7 7.4
Hotel 28.6 -15.0 0.4
Industrial Total 71.8 -3.3 0.0
Institutional Total 197.3 4.0 7.2
Health 47.6 11.1 7.8
Education 104.5 3.5 5.5
Religious 3.2 12.5 2.8
Public Safety 15.1 -6.0 12.0
Amusement & Recreation 26.9 -2.6 10.7

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 462.6 -2.7 3.0
Commercial Total 193.5 -4.7 2.0
Office 81.2 -4.0 0.3
Retail & Other Commercial 83.7 -2.2 3.6
Hotel 28.6 -13.8 2.0
Industrial Total 71.8 1.6 3.5
Institutional Total 197.3 -2.4 3.7
Health 47.6 3.0 5.1
Education 104.5 -2.9 3.7
Religious 3.2 -6.9 -4.0
Public Safety 15.1 -4.5 -1.2
Amusement & Recreation 26.9 -8.0 5.0

Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Mark Vitner
(704) 410-3277
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 462.6 -5.9 2.3
Commercial Total 193.5 -6.2 2.0
Office 81.2 -5.5 2.3
Retail & Other Commercial 83.7 -5.0 1.5
Hotel 28.6 -18.5 2.8
Industrial Total 71.8 -3.5 3.2
Institutional Total 197.3 -5.4 2.3
Health 47.6 -3.7 4.1
Education 104.5 -6.8 2.5
Religious 3.2 -5.1 1.8
Public Safety 15.1 7.0 -2.5
Amusement & Recreation 26.9 -10.2 1.4

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(301)588-5190
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 462.6 -3.5 2.9
Commercial Total 193.5 -5.5 0.4
Office 81.2 -1.4 0.8
Retail & Other Commercial 83.7 -4.6 -0.3
Hotel 28.6 -19.7 1.3
Industrial Total 71.8 1.8 7.0
Institutional Total 197.3 -3.4 3.7
Health 47.6 -0.1 5.5
Education 104.5 -2.4 4.1
Religious 3.2 -4.9 -2.0
Public Safety 15.1 -9.5 -0.7
Amusement & Recreation 26.9 -9.4 1.5

Notes:

* FMI's "Retail & Other Commercial" category includes commercial/retail, transportation, and communication.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.