CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, DECEMBER 2020

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total – -5.7 3.1
Commercial Total – -7.1 3.1
Office – -9.3 0.1
Retail & Other Commercial – -3.5 5.2
Hotel – -20.2 8.8
Industrial Total – -4.5 1.5
Institutional Total – -4.0 3.2
Health – 1.2 3.2
Education – -3.9 2.7
Religious – -6.7 -2.9
Public Safety – 1.0 -0.4
Amusement & Recreation – -12.6 11.1

Dodge Data & Analytics

Richard Branch
(781) 430-8884
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 440.2 -7.2 2.6
Commercial Total 191.3 -4.7 7.8
Office 77.2 -0.6 4.4
Retail & Other Commercial 89.1 -1.5 12.4
Hotel 25.0 -28.5 -0.6
Industrial Total 69.8 -17.5 -15.5
Institutional Total 179.1 -5.8 3.2
Health 46.6 2.0 8.4
Education 96.4 -5.0 1.4
Religious 3.0 -8.0 -1.0
Public Safety 10.1 -7.0 0.0
Amusement & Recreation 23.0 -24.0 1.0

IHS Economics

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 482.1 -7.5 2.1
Commercial Total 169.3 -9.2 -0.5
Office 69.9 -12.8 1.9
Retail & Other Commercial 71.6 -6.4 -5.8
Hotel 27.7 -7.3 7.5
Industrial Total 73.4 -5.8 3.4
Institutional Total 216.5 -8.3 4.0
Health 47.2 0.5 3.9
Education 102.4 -7.0 7.4
Religious 3.0 -16.9 -4.0
Public Safety N/A N/A N/A
Amusement & Recreation 27.1 -6.7 -1.6

Moody’s Analytics

Evan Karson
(610) 235-5125
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 461.0 -4.6 15.9
Commercial Total 191.2 -10.7 22.2
Office 73.9 -5.7 1.0
Retail & Other Commercial 82.8 -8.4 39.0
Hotel 27.6 -52.5 69.6
Industrial Total 72.8 -3.4 5.9
Institutional Total 197.0 1.0 14.0
Health 47.9 1.5 -5.5
Education 104.6 4.8 5.6
Religious 3.1 10.9 2.7
Public Safety 15.0 12.0 6.8
Amusement & Recreation 26.4 -22.3 113.4

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 531.1 -8.3 -4.5
Commercial Total 268.5 -10.3 -8.8
Office 80.1 -14.3 -10.4
Retail & Other Commercial* 160.9 -6.7 -7.2
Hotel 27.5 -20.2 -14.4
Industrial Total 73.3 -5.3 4.4
Institutional Total 189.4 -6.5 -2.3
Health 47.2 -2.8 -1.8
Education 101.2 -4.8 0.5
Religious 3.0 -15.9 -8.2
Public Safety 11.9 -1.8 -6.3
Amusement & Recreation 26.1 -20.9 -13.1

ConstructConnect

Alex Carrick
(905) 752-5538
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 466.6 -5.0 0.0
Commercial Total 194.7 -6.4 -0.5
Office 81.5 -14.5 -3.2
Retail & Other Commercial 84.3 3.2 2.3
Hotel 28.9 -11.8 -3.1
Industrial Total 73.4 -3.3 2.4
Institutional Total 198.5 -4.3 -0.4
Health 48.3 2.7 4.0
Education 104.3 -6.4 -1.2
Religious 3.1 -3.2 -3.3
Public Safety 15.3 -10.5 -5.1
Amusement & Recreation 27.5 -5.5 -2.7

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 467.6 -0.8 2.0
Commercial Total 194.8 -2.9 2.4
Office 82.1 -6.5 0.2
Retail & Other Commercial 84.7 4.0 3.6
Hotel 28.0 -13.4 4.9
Industrial Total 73.0 6.5 3.7
Institutional Total 199.8 -1.4 1.0
Health 48.2 4.5 6.7
Education 105.7 -3.9 0.7
Religious 3.1 -10.9 -6.3
Public Safety 15.3 11.2 -3.1
Amusement & Recreation 27.5 -8.0 -5.5

Wells Fargo Securities

Mark Vitner
(704) 410-3277
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 450.7 -9.2 2.1
Commercial Total 195.0 -6.2 1.7
Office 76.1 -15.0 6.3
Retail & Other Commercial 89.5 -5.0 -2.8
Hotel 29.4 -17.0 4.9
Industrial Total 68.0 -3.5 3.2
Institutional Total 187.8 -9.7 2.1
Health 46.9 -7.5 4.1
Education 97.0 -12.0 2.5
Religious 2.6 -5.1 -2.8
Public Safety 14.8 -4.3 2.5
Amusement & Recreation 26.6 -8.5 -2.9

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(301) 588-5190
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2020 2021 2022
Nonresidential Total 463.5 -3.4 4.3
Commercial Total 193.3 -6.5 0.3
Office 81.3 -4.6 0.2
Retail & Other Commercial 83.4 -6.9 0.0
Hotel 28.5 -10.5 1.6
Industrial Total 72.7 -4.1 4.7
Institutional Total 197.5 3.4 4.2
Health 47.8 8.4 5.9
Education 104.4 3.0 4.7
Religious 3.1 -4.5 -0.4
Public Safety 15.1 7.5 2.4
Amusement & Recreation 27.1 -5.1 0.1

Notes:

* FMI's "Retail & Other Commercial" category includes commercial/retail, transportation, and communication.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There are no standard definitions of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g., public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.