CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, JULY 2020

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total – -8.1 -4.8
Commercial Total – -11.6 -8.4
Office – -11.1 -7.6
Retail & Other Commercial – -7.7 -7.2
Hotel – -20.5 -16.5
Industrial Total – -8.3 -3.3
Institutional Total – -4.5 -1.7
Health – 2.4 3.2
Education – -6.6 -1.0
Religious – -9.9 -5.9
Public Safety – 15.6 2.5
Amusement & Recreation – -13.0 -11.9

Dodge Data & Analytics

Richard Branch
(781) 430-8884
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 455.6 -8.0 -2.0
Commercial Total 198.2 -9.8 0.6
Office 79.2 -6.6 5.6
Retail & Other Commercial 85.4 -5.5 0.8
Hotel 33.6 -28.5 -15.4
Industrial Total 74.3 -6.1 -16.7
Institutional Total 183.2 -6.5 1.6
Health 44.2 3.5 10.5
Education 98.0 -7.5 1.5
Religious 2.9 11.1 0.2
Public Safety 10.2 0.5 1.5
Amusement & Recreation 27.8 -23.5 -16.7

IHS Economics

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 473.3 -14.1 -1.6
Commercial Total 171.5 -18.9 -8.4
Office 68.5 -24.0 -7.6
Retail & Other Commercial 70.5 -3.2 -2.3
Hotel 32.5 -22.4 -4.2
Industrial Total 73.9 -14.7 7.7
Institutional Total 204.5 -10.8 0.8
Health 44.3 -1.4 2.3
Education 98.0 -13.7 3.1
Religious 2.9 -12.3 -3.7
Public Safety N/A N/A N/A
Amusement & Recreation 27.9 -11.9 -4.4

Moody’s Analytics

Evan Karson
(610) 235-5125
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 471.8 -8.8 -9.4
Commercial Total 198.3 -18.9 -23.4
Office 73.9 -22.1 -18.1
Retail & Other Commercial 80.5 -14.2 -20.9
Hotel 33.1 -32.0 -61.5
Industrial Total 79.8 -16.8 -6.1
Institutional Total 193.7 4.8 0.7
Health 45.6 13.8 3.4
Education 105.5 3.4 5.9
Religious 3.6 -14.0 -0.5
Public Safety 10.3 32.0 6.6
Amusement & Recreation 28.8 -11.7 -30.3

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 533.8 -9.0 -11.0
Commercial Total 276.3 -9.6 -12.5
Office 79.2 -7.1 -15.6
Retail & Other Commercial* 163.6 -9.5 -9.0
Hotel 33.6 -15.4 -22.5
Industrial Total 74.3 -8.5 -13.1
Institutional Total 183.2 -8.5 -8.1
Health 44.2 -7.3 -6.8
Education 98.0 -6.8 -6.0
Religious 2.9 -19.6 -15.4
Public Safety 10.2 -4.0 -0.6
Amusement & Recreation 27.8 -16.8 -21.0

ConstructConnect

Alex Carrick
(905) 752-5538
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 455.6 -8.5 -1.4
Commercial Total 198.2 -8.6 -3.2
Office 79.2 -8.0 -6.0
Retail & Other Commercial 85.4 -4.0 -0.2
Hotel 33.6 -22.0 -5.0
Industrial Total 74.3 -12.0 2.5
Institutional Total 183.2 -7.0 -1.0
Health 44.2 4.0 3.5
Education 98.0 -10.0 -3.0
Religious 2.9 -15.0 -4.0
Public Safety 10.2 7.0 2.6
Amusement & Recreation 27.8 -18.0 -4.0

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 455.6 -3.1 -3.1
Commercial Total 198.2 -7.4 -8.6
Office 79.2 -5.0 -6.2
Retail & Other Commercial 85.4 -8.8 -9.1
Hotel 33.6 -9.3 -13.4
Industrial Total 74.3 -0.5 4.0
Institutional Total 183.2 0.3 -0.4
Health 44.2 5.1 7.0
Education 98.0 -3.3 -3.9
Religious 2.9 -10.5 -11.0
Public Safety 10.2 32.1 7.5
Amusement & Recreation 27.8 -4.7 -3.5

Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Mark Vitner
(704) 410-3277
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 455.6 -10.1 -6.4
Commercial Total 198.2 -15.9 -6.2
Office 79.2 -12.8 -8.2
Retail & Other Commercial 85.4 -16.7 -9.4
Hotel 33.6 -20.8 -4.5
Industrial Total 74.3 -6.4 -3.5
Institutional Total 183.2 -5.3 -5.8
Health 44.2 -2.5 -7.5
Education 98.0 -8.0 -4.5
Religious 2.9 -7.2 -5.1
Public Safety 10.2 10.5 -4.3
Amusement & Recreation 27.8 -5.9 -8.5

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(301)588-5190
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 455.6 -2.8 -3.2
Commercial Total 198.2 -3.4 -5.8
Office 79.2 -3.5 -4.4
Retail & Other Commercial 85.4 0.6 -7.1
Hotel 33.6 -13.3 -5.4
Industrial Total 74.3 -1.3 -1.3
Institutional Total 183.2 -2.7 -1.2
Health 44.2 4.4 13.4
Education 98.0 -6.6 -1.0
Religious 2.9 -12.1 -7.5
Public Safety 10.2 31.1 4.3
Amusement & Recreation 27.8 -11.5 -6.5

Notes:

* FMI's "Retail & Other Commercial" category includes commercial/retail, transportation, and communication.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.