CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, DECEMBER 2019

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total – 1.5 0.9
Commercial Total – 0.6 -0.2
Office – 3.0 0.5
Retail & Other Commercial – -1.3 -0.9
Hotel – -0.7 -1.0
Industrial Total – 0.3 0.5
Institutional Total – 2.9 2.0
Health – 3.4 3.5
Education – 3.9 3.3
Religious – -1.9 -1.9
Public Safety – 7.2 2.6
Amusement & Recreation – -1.8 -1.6

Dodge Data & Analytics

Richard Branch
(781) 430-8884
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 467.8 1.1 -5.9
Commercial Total 214.4 1.2 -7.5
Office 84.5 6.9 -6.5
Retail & Other Commercial 95.2 0.3 -7.1
Hotel 34.7 -10.4 -11.4
Industrial Total 69.7 -8.0 -10.4
Institutional Total 183.7 4.5 -2.5
Health 41.9 6.5 -1.7
Education 101.1 5.3 -0.5
Religious 3.0 20.4 -4.6
Public Safety 9.9 6.0 -5.2
Amusement & Recreation 27.8 -3.8 -10.6

IHS Economics

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 456.7 1.2 2.9
Commercial Total 169.7 -1.3 0.1
Office 68.3 0.9 2.6
Retail & Other Commercial 68.5 -3.2 -2.3
Hotel 32.8 -2.0 0.0
Industrial Total 70.3 -1.2 1.5
Institutional Total 202.6 4.0 5.5
Health 44.2 5.4 7.2
Education 97.0 7.2 7.9
Religious 2.8 -8.5 -7.0
Public Safety N/A N/A N/A
Amusement & Recreation 27.9 -4.3 -2.1

Moody’s Economy.com

Evan Karson
(610) 235-5125
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 452.3 3.4 5.4
Commercial Total 196.9 3.9 5.9
Office 68.6 3.2 3.5
Retail & Other Commercial 83.9 3.1 6.9
Hotel 33.8 5.3 8.2
Industrial Total 72.4 -0.5 2.7
Institutional Total 183.0 4.5 5.9
Health 44.2 2.0 5.9
Education 98.2 6.4 6.0
Religious 2.9 -0.4 5.3
Public Safety 10.0 12.1 6.6
Amusement & Recreation 27.7 -0.8 5.1

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 540.1 1.0 -0.2
Commercial Total 284.0 1.0 -0.7
Office 78.7 1.2 -2.9
Retail & Other Commercial* 171.8 0.9 1.1
Hotel 33.5 0.9 -5.2
Industrial Total 71.7 -0.8 -1.3
Institutional Total 184.4 1.7 1.0
Health 43.6 3.1 0.8
Education 99.5 2.3 2.7
Religious 3.0 -5.7 -3.4
Public Safety 10.3 6.4 0.2
Amusement & Recreation 28.1 -3.5 -4.4

ConstructConnect

Alex Carrick
(905) 752-5538
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 451.0 -0.6 0.6
Commercial Total 196.2 -1.7 -0.3
Office 79.1 1.9 1.2
Retail & Other Commercial 83.0 -3.7 0.1
Hotel 34.1 -5.3 -5.0
Industrial Total 72.6 3.9 4.1
Institutional Total 182.2 -1.1 -0.1
Health 44.1 2.3 2.4
Education 97.2 -2.4 -1.4
Religious 2.9 -6.9 0.0
Public Safety 10.1 4.0 2.9
Amusement & Recreation 27.9 -3.2 -0.7

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 454.4 1.5 -0.9
Commercial Total 198.0 -0.4 -3.2
Office 79.2 0.9 -0.9
Retail & Other Commercial 83.6 -2.9 -6.2
Hotel 35.2 2.5 -1.7
Industrial Total 73.2 3.7 -2.0
Institutional Total 183.2 2.7 1.9
Health 44.2 2.2 3.3
Education 98.1 3.9 2.9
Religious 2.9 -7.0 -5.3
Public Safety 10.1 7.1 4.2
Amusement & Recreation 27.9 -1.5 -4.2

Wells Fargo Securities

Mark Vitner
(704) 410-3277
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 463.4 2.8 3.6
Commercial Total 203.7 1.7 3.6
Office 80.3 6.5 5.4
Retail & Other Commercial 89.3 -3.5 1.3
Hotel 34.1 4.2 5.1
Industrial Total 73.3 4.2 4.5
Institutional Total 186.5 3.5 3.1
Health 44.1 4.4 5.2
Education 99.9 2.6 2.4
Religious 3.0 -3.4 0.5
Public Safety 10.3 5.2 4.8
Amusement & Recreation 29.1 5.4 2.1

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(301) 588-5190
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Estimated Forecast
$ % Change
2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Total 452.1 1.8 1.5
Commercial Total 196.4 0.1 0.6
Office 79.2 2.3 1.5
Retail & Other Commercial 83.6 -1.5 -1.0
Hotel 33.7 -1.2 2.0
Industrial Total 72.6 1.4 4.5
Institutional Total 183.0 3.8 1.2
Health 44.2 1.6 5.1
Education 98.3 6.3 6.1
Religious 2.9 -3.8 -1.1
Public Safety 10.2 9.8 4.7
Amusement & Recreation 27.6 -2.9 2.0

Notes:

* FMI's "Retail & Other Commercial" category includes commercial/retail, transportation, and communication.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There are no standard definitions of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g., public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.