CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, JULY 2019

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2018 2019 2020
Nonresidential Total – 3.8 2.4
Commercial Total – 2.5 1.1
Office – 6.9 2.2
Retail & Other Commercial – -0.8 0.3
Hotel – 3.6 0.5
Industrial Total – 6.4 3.3
Institutional Total – 4.9 3.7
Health – 2.7 3.7
Education – 6.1 4.4
Religious – -4.5 -2.8
Public Safety – 8.2 5.9
Amusement & Recreation – 4.4 1.0

Dodge Data & Analytics

Bob Murray
(781) 430-2201
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2018 2019 2020
Nonresidential Total 434.5 3.8 -0.5
Commercial Total 194.3 2.1 -3.9
Office 72.9 6.7 -2.1
Retail & Other Commercial 89.5 -2.8 -5.0
Hotel 31.9 5.1 -5.4
Industrial Total 65.1 6.9 2.4
Institutional Total 175.0 4.6 2.1
Health 42.0 2.6 3.2
Education 94.3 5.7 2.4
Religious 3.0 -4.2 0.3
Public Safety 9.2 6.3 2.2
Amusement & Recreation 26.5 4.1 -0.7

IHS Economics

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2018 2019 2020
Nonresidential Total 456.3 1.9 2.1
Commercial Total 172.5 0.4 0.2
Office 63.5 5.3 2.1
Retail & Other Commercial 78.2 0.0 0.0
Hotel 30.8 2.8 -0.5
Industrial Total 64.1 0.4 1.6
Institutional Total 195.2 4.4 4.0
Health 42.0 2.4 7.4
Education 95.0 7.8 5.4
Religious 3.0 -7.4 -9.5
Public Safety N/A N/A N/A
Amusement & Recreation 26.6 -0.2 -4.3

Moody’s Economy.com

Loc Quach
(610) 235-5125
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2018 2019 2020
Nonresidential Total 453.3 3.0 4.4
Commercial Total 171.6 2.6 5.7
Office 63.5 7.4 4.5
Retail & Other Commercial 77.3 -2.1 6.1
Hotel 30.8 4.6 7.4
Industrial Total 64.5 8.2 0.1
Institutional Total 175.2 5.3 4.6
Health 42.1 3.5 3.9
Education 94.5 6.6 5.4
Religious 3.0 -1.7 0.7
Public Safety 9.1 7.5 6.8
Amusement & Recreation 26.5 3.5 2.3

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2018 2019 2020
Nonresidential Total 510.9 3.8 1.2
Commercial Total 270.7 4.1 0.7
Office 72.9 6.0 -0.8
Retail & Other Commercial* 165.9 4.1 2.0
Hotel 31.9 -0.7 -2.9
Industrial Total 65.1 3.3 0.9
Institutional Total 175.0 3.4 2.0
Health 42.0 2.2 2.9
Education 94.3 4.1 3.1
Religious 3.0 -5.6 -5.7
Public Safety 9.2 7.2 7.8
Amusement & Recreation 26.5 2.6 -4.3

ConstructConnect

Alex Carrick
(905) 752-5538
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2018 2019 2020
Nonresidential Total 434.4 5.2 4.3
Commercial Total 194.3 3.2 2.6
Office 72.9 8.0 4.8
Retail & Other Commercial 89.5 -0.6 1.9
Hotel 31.9 3.1 -0.6
Industrial Total 65.1 11.8 9.1
Institutional Total 175.0 5.0 4.2
Health 42.0 2.9 3.9
Education 94.3 5.4 4.4
Religious 3.0 -6.7 -3.6
Public Safety 9.2 10.9 7.8
Amusement & Recreation 26.5 6.4 3.5

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2018 2019 2020
Nonresidential Total 434.0 3.9 1.2
Commercial Total 194.3 2.1 -1.1
Office 72.9 5.4 0.0
Retail & Other Commercial 89.5 -1.3 -2.0
Hotel 31.9 3.8 -1.1
Industrial Total 65.1 6.2 3.7
Institutional Total 174.6 5.4 3.7
Health 42.2 2.9 2.2
Education 93.8 6.2 4.7
Religious 3.0 -5.1 -6.0
Public Safety 9.3 9.4 7.1
Amusement & Recreation 26.4 6.1 2.4

Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Mark Vitner
(704) 410-3277
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2018 2019 2020
Nonresidential Total 434.5 4.7 3.2
Commercial Total 194.3 3.3 2.4
Office 72.9 8.9 5.6
Retail & Other Commercial 89.5 -2.5 -1.5
Hotel 31.9 6.5 5.0
Industrial Total 65.1 6.5 4.3
Institutional Total 175.0 5.6 3.6
Health 42.0 1.7 2.5
Education 94.3 6.5 3.4
Religious 3.0 -4.5 1.6
Public Safety 9.2 9.0 5.2
Amusement & Recreation 26.5 8.5 5.4

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(301)588-5190
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2018 2019 2020
Nonresidential Total 434.5 4.5 3.6
Commercial Total 194.3 2.7 2.0
Office 72.9 7.6 3.3
Retail & Other Commercial 89.5 -1.6 1.1
Hotel 31.9 3.7 1.7
Industrial Total 65.1 7.9 4.1
Institutional Total 175.0 5.2 5.1
Health 42.0 3.3 4.0
Education 94.3 6.4 6.2
Religious 3.0 -1.0 -0.2
Public Safety 9.2 7.2 4.6
Amusement & Recreation 26.5 3.8 3.5

Notes:

* FMI's Retail & Other Commercial category includes transportation and communication sectors.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.