CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, JUNE 2017

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2016 2017 2018
Nonresidential Total 3.8 3.6
Commercial Total 8.8 4.0
Office 8.9 4.0
Retail & Other Commercial 10.0 4.6
Hotel 6.1 2.4
Industrial Total -6.6 1.1
Institutional Total 3.5 4.1
Health 0.9 3.5
Education 4.9 4.8
Religious -9.2 -1.0
Public Safety 1.4 3.7
Amusement & Recreation 7.1 3.0

Dodge Data & Analytics

Bob Murray
(781) 430-2201
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2016 2017 2018
Nonresidential Total 409.6 4.0 5.5
Commercial Total 170.8 8.7 5.4
Office 69.0 9.8 7.6
Retail & Other Commercial 74.5 8.8 6.0
Hotel 27.2 5.4 -1.9
Industrial Total 75.1 -5.3 4.4
Institutional Total 163.7 3.5 6.0
Health 41.4 0.9 3.8
Education 88.7 4.5 7.9
Religious 3.8 -8.2 2.0
Public Safety 8.1 0.2 2.1
Amusement & Recreation 21.8 7.3 4.7

IHS Economics

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2016 2017 2018
Nonresidential Total 415.3 4.4 1.7
Commercial Total 147.9 10.4 -1.4
Office 60.8 8.9 -2.6
Retail & Other Commercial 60.3 14.9 0.2
Hotel 26.8 3.8 -2.4
Industrial Total 74.3 -9.4 -2.6
Institutional Total 181.1 5.2 5.7
Health 41.2 4.9 10.7
Education 88.8 7.8 6.7
Religious 3.7 -14.4 -12.4
Public Safety N/A N/A N/A
Amusement & Recreation 21.8 6.4 -2.4

Moody’s Economy.com

Michael Ferlez
(610) 235-5162
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2016 2017 2018
Nonresidential Total 420.5 4.1 5.1
Commercial Total 147.9 10.2 6.5
Office 60.8 7.9 2.2
Retail & Other Commercial 60.3 14.5 10.9
Hotel 26.8 5.8 5.9
Industrial Total 74.4 -7.2 2.2
Institutional Total 163.5 4.0 4.5
Health 41.2 -0.8 1.9
Education 88.8 6.0 5.0
Religious 3.7 -7.0 9.5
Public Safety 8.0 0.8 6.0
Amusement & Recreation 21.8 8.1 6.3

FMI

Randy Giggard
(919) 785-9268
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2016 2017 2018
Nonresidential Total 472.1 4.0 5.1
Commercial Total 233.1 7.1 5.3
Office 69.1 8.7 6.8
Retail & Other Commercial* 136.8 6.4 4.8
Hotel 27.2 6.4 4.2
Industrial Total 75.2 -2.9 8.0
Institutional Total 163.8 2.8 3.6
Health 41.4 2.5 3.6
Education 88.8 2.9 3.9
Religious 3.7 3.1 2.7
Public Safety 8.1 -1.1 1.7
Amusement & Recreation 21.8 4.3 3.3

ConstructConnect

Alex Carrick
(905) 752-5538
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2016 2017 2018
Nonresidential Total 409.6 3.0 3.4
Commercial Total 170.7 6.9 4.6
Office 69.0 7.8 5.4
Retail & Other Commercial 74.5 5.5 4.3
Hotel 27.2 8.5 3.4
Industrial Total 75.1 -7.1 -3.7
Institutional Total 163.8 3.4 5.1
Health 41.4 1.2 6.7
Education 88.7 3.6 4.4
Religious 3.8 -13.2 0.0
Public Safety 8.1 4.9 7.1
Amusement & Recreation 21.8 9.2 5.0

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2016 2017 2018
Nonresidential Total 409.7 4.0 1.8
Commercial Total 170.8 10.0 2.7
Office 69.0 9.0 2.6
Retail & Other Commercial 74.6 11.6 2.2
Hotel 27.2 8.1 4.4
Industrial Total 75.1 -6.2 -1.8
Institutional Total 163.8 2.3 2.4
Health 41.4 -1.6 2.8
Education 88.7 3.8 2.3
Religious 3.8 -12.9 -1.2
Public Safety 8.1 0.7 4.0
Amusement & Recreation 21.8 7.0 1.8

Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Anika Khan
(212) 214-8543
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2016 2017 2018
Nonresidential Total 378.0 3.3 2.7
Commercial Total 158.7 8.5 4.8
Office 60.8 10.1 6.3
Retail & Other Commercial 71.1 8.4 4.1
Hotel 26.8 5.0 3.2
Industrial Total 74.3 -8.1 1.0
Institutional Total 145.0 3.6 1.2
Health 32.6 -0.9 -5.0
Education 88.8 5.5 3.4
Religious 3.7 -11.6 -7.5
Public Safety 8.0 3.0 1.2
Amusement & Recreation 11.8 7.1 2.5

Notes:

* FMI's Retail & Other Commercial category includes transportation and communication sectors.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.