CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  EST Forecast
$ % Change
2013 2014 2015
Nonresidential Total 5.8 8.0
Commercial Total 10.3 10.8
Office 9.2 10.8
Retail & Other Commercial 10.5 11.5
Hotel 13.1 9.2
Industrial Total 7.8 8.7
Institutional Total 3.4 6.3
Health 5.2 7.8
Education 2.8 5.8
Religious -1.7 1.3
Public Safety -0.2 3.1
Amusement & Recreation 9.9 7.5

McGraw-Hill Construction

Bob Murray
(781) 430-2201
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
EST Forecast
$ % Change
2013 2014 2015
Nonresidential Total 295.7 5.4 11.2
Commercial Total 100.8 15.9 19.4
Office 38.2 13.2 18.9
Retail & Other Commercial 48.5 17.7 21.2
Hotel 14.1 16.7 14.2
Industrial Total 48.7 6.1 8.7
Institutional Total 146.2 -2.0 5.4
Health 40.6 -1.0 5.8
Education 78.9 -2.5 4.8
Religious 3.4 0.0 5.3
Public Safety 9.2 -14.9 -5.1
Amusement & Recreation 14.1 6.0 13.1

IHS-Global Insight

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
EST Forecast
$ % Change
2013 2014 2015
Nonresidential Total 308.2 9.2 10.8
Commercial Total 82.2 15.5 14.9
Office 29.9 15.1 18.2
Retail & Other Commercial 38.8 15.3 13.2
Hotel 13.5 17.0 12.2
Industrial Total 46.0 5.8 8.9
Institutional Total 164.7 7.3 9.5
Health 41.4 10.7 11.3
Education 80.0 9.7 12.2
Religious 3.5 -7.5 -6.5
Public Safety N/A N/A N/A
Amusement & Recreation 14.0 5.5 4.1

Moody’s Economy.com*

Mark Zandi
(610) 235-5151
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
EST Forecast
$ % Change
2013 2014 2015
Nonresidential Total 295.2 4.9 6.5
Commercial Total 88.9 10.9 10.5
Office 29.8 11.6 16.5
Retail & Other Commercial 38.5 8.1 9.2
Hotel 13.6 23.1 5.8
Industrial Total 48.3 15.5 10.1
Institutional Total 153.1 5.5 5.6
Health 11.1 5.4 3.3
Education 79.3 4.4 5.8
Religious N/A N/A N/A
Public Safety 9.2 1.4 4.7
Amusement & Recreation 15.8 36.7 5.9

FMI

Randy Giggard
(919) 785-9268
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
EST Forecast
$ % Change
2013 2014 2015
Nonresidential Total 360.0 4.5 5.9
Commercial Total 159.8 4.8 6.3
Office 38.7 3.0 4.8
Retail & Other Commercial 107.6 4.9 6.4
Hotel 13.4 9.7 9.6
Industrial Total 48.7 6.5 6.7
Institutional Total 151.5 3.6 5.1
Health 41.7 3.9 5.5
Education 81.3 3.7 5.0
Religious 3.4 2.5 3.2
Public Safety 9.8 3.0 3.7
Amusement & Recreation 15.3 2.6 6.3

Reed Construction Data

Bernie Markstein
(301) 588-5190
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
EST Forecast
$ % Change
2013 2014 2015
Nonresidential Total 296.8 7.1 8.3
Commercial Total 100.3 9.3 8.8
Office 37.9 8.6 5.9
Retail & Other Commercial 48.4 8.6 10.0
Hotel 14.0 13.6 12.2
Industrial Total 48.6 9.9 11.1
Institutional Total 147.8 4.7 7.1
Health 41.1 10.8 11.7
Education 79.5 0.9 4.0
Religious 3.5 -4.2 0.1
Public Safety 9.4 5.0 7.7
Amusement & Recreation 14.4 10.1 10.7

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
EST Forecast
$ % Change
2013 2014 2015
Nonresidential Total 308.3 5.0 5.4
Commercial Total 105.7 7.1 5.6
Office 39.7 7.3 6.0
Retail & Other Commercial 50.9 6.7 5.4
Hotel 15.1 8.3 5.1
Industrial Total 49.8 4.0 5.7
Institutional Total 152.8 3.9 5.1
Health 42.1 2.9 4.9
Education 82.0 3.6 4.8
Religious 3.6 4.7 4.8
Public Safety 9.8 4.0 4.2
Amusement & Recreation 15.3 7.3 6.7

Wells Fargo Securities

Anika Kahn
(704) 715-0575
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $)
EST Forecast
$ % Change
2013 2014 2015
Nonresidential Total 299.6 4.3 8.2
Commercial Total 97.4 8.5 10.3
Office 38.4 5.3 5.5
Retail & Other Commercial 47.0 12.5 15.2
Hotel 12.0 3.2 5.3
Industrial Total 47.0 6.5 10.0
Institutional Total 155.1 0.9 6.3
Health 41.9 3.5 12.0
Education 84.3 0.0 3.9
Religious 3.7 -5.6 1.0
Public Safety 10.2 0.2 3.4
Amusement & Recreation 15.1 1.2 6.0

Notes: *For Moody’s Economy.com data the total nonresidential percent change figures only include total private nonresidential spending. They do not include institutional (public construction).

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

Beginning with 2011, all forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.